The Antarctic ice sheet is highly likely to continue losing mass by the end of this century—even with a sharp decline in greenhouse gas emissions. However, a new study shows that the extent of ice loss will still depend significantly on future climate action.
An international research team led by Yucheng Lin investigated how the Antarctic ice sheet might respond to different emissions scenarios. The study, published on September 30, 2026, in Nature Geoscience, concludes that Antarctica is at least a 92 percent probability of experiencing a net loss of ice by 2100, even with substantial emissions reductions.
However, the extent of this loss depends crucially on future warming. According to the study, there is at least an 89 percent probability that a very low-emission pathway will result in less ice loss than a scenario with very high emissions.
The floating ice shelves along the Antarctic coast play a key role. They slow down the glaciers as they flow into the ocean. If the ice shelves melt from below due to warmer seawater, the ice masses behind them can flow out more quickly.
For their study, the researchers combined numerous ice sheet simulations with machine learning and satellite measurements from 2002 to 2021.
If emissions remain very high, Antarctica could contribute to global sea-level rise by around 15 centimeters by 2100 in one high-risk area studied, and by as much as 25 centimeters in a higher estimate. However, these figures are neither a universal forecast nor an absolute upper limit.
The study makes it clear that further ice loss in Antarctica is virtually inevitable. However, the extent of this loss can still be influenced by limiting global warming.
Liam Anderson, PolarJournal