A study conducted by Arctida surveys Russian public opinion on the Kremlin’s plans for the Arctic. Environment, defense, and mining… here are some of the responses in figures.
On April 2, the NGO Arctida published the results of a telephone survey it had conducted in Russia. The pollsters were able to reach 1,600 respondents to ask them about Arctic development.
Three outcomes emerged from the survey results:
- 86% of Russians are in favor of reducing environmental impact in the Arctic.
- 79% of those consulted believe that the Arctic is a territory for cooperation with other nations.
- 68% of respondents believe that mining resources should be extracted from the Arctic.
These three results exceed 66% and could be considered as a decision consensus.
On March 27, the Russian president delivered a speech at the Arctic Forum in Murmansk, during which he reiterated his vision for the development of northern Russia, seeking to attract foreign investors. Unlike the environment and the rights of indigenous peoples, the mining, logistics, and defense sectors were given pride of place.
What do the Russians really think? That’s the question Arctida is seeking answers to.
Ecologists, enthusiasts or laymen?
“The survey reveals that people often support contradictory ideas: they are in favor of minimizing environmental impact while at the same time approving of mining activities. This contradiction can be explained in several ways. Beyond methodological factors, it probably reflects a general lack of understanding on the part of the public about how different activities are interconnected in the Arctic,” Nail Farkhatdinov, sociologist and analyst at Arctida, tells polarjournal.net.
On the other hand, Ilya Dorkhanov, a Russian sociologist with the NGO Russian Field, believes that: “the fact that these positions may contradict each other doesn’t seem to matter much. First of all, agreement bias leads people to agree with each statement individually because they generally sound positive. Secondly, the phrase ‘could contradict each other’ doesn’t necessarily mean that they do in fact contradict each other: for example, oil extraction could in theory be carried out with all environmental safeguards.”
Whether one is unfamiliar with the subject or in favor of clean, sustainable extraction, that’s the question.
“Respondents who don’t have in-depth knowledge of Arctic issues tend to be somewhat idealistic and optimistic, supporting any ideas that sound good and hoping they can be implemented smoothly,” Ilya Dorkhanov also explains.
Who can we work with?
The other politically significant aspect is the development of cooperation in the Arctic. But when it comes to the question of who to cooperate with, opinion seems divided: BRICS countries, Arctic countries or other partners? Opinions vary. For China, opinion is already clearer, with over 60% of responses in favor.
Russian public opinion also seems to diverge when it comes to geopolitics. Some see NATO as a threat, while others see the Arctic as a territory of stability, dialogue and cooperation.
“Regarding groups of respondents with differing opinions, I would have to review the raw data for a more detailed analysis. However, I can confirm that there is a correlation between support for the special military operation (the label used to refer to the Russian invasion) and support for extraction and mining activities. There are also weak signs of polarization on this issue, which suggests that this link could be significant”, explains Nail Farkhatdinov.
This group of supporters of the Ukrainian conflict is most likely sensitive to NATO’s presence, and would therefore follow the line of Vladimir Putin’s Murmansk speech.