According to a new international scientific study, the global reindeer population will decline dramatically by the end of this century due to the climate crisis. Researchers reconstructed the development of reindeer populations over the last 21,000 years and modelled how current global warming will affect this species.
Although reindeer have survived previous periods of rapid warming, their population has declined by 66% over the last 30 years and could fall by a further 60% by 2100 compared to today. The sharpest decline is expected in North America, where numbers could fall by up to 84%.
One of the few exceptions is the Taimyr Peninsula, where models predict an increase in populations. This area has historically served as a refuge for reindeer during previous warming periods. Another potential refuge could be central Greenland, where glacier melt could create new habitats. However, these isolated cases cannot outweigh the overall alarming outlook.
The authors of the study emphasise the urgent need for a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and increased investment in reindeer conservation. This is crucial not only for the conservation of the species and its important ecological role in Arctic ecosystems, but also for securing the livelihoods and cultural well-being of indigenous peoples and local communities.
Rosamaria Kubny, PolarJournal