For now, the situation still appears calm. It is still considered unlikely that the United States will gain control over Greenland in the near future. A determined and so far unified stance by the Danish and Greenlandic governments, supported by allied states, has curbed American ambitions in the Arctic. Yet beneath the seemingly stable surface, cracks are beginning to appear.
The winter silence in Copenhagen and Nuuk was abruptly broken when Donald Trump appointed the governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, as special envoy for Greenland. Landry was to “take charge” there. In both Denmark and Greenland, this wording caused irritation and unease. It sounded less like diplomacy than a claim of ownership and revived memories of Trump’s earlier, openly stated intentions to buy the island. The message was unmistakable: Washington is still serious.
At the same time, the internal cohesion of the Danish Kingdom is coming under pressure. The parliamentary elections next year are unpredictable. If the trend seen in the recent municipal elections continues, the Social Democrats face significant losses. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, until now a firmly established figure on the European stage, could be politically weakened. What happens if she is replaced by a less experienced government, confronted with a Trump who despises compromise and wants to project strength?
Uncertainty is also growing within Greenland itself. The more U.S.-friendly party Naleraq is gaining support. It is still in opposition, but what if the fragile governing coalition collapses? What if Naleraq becomes the strongest force and rapprochement with the United States becomes politically acceptable? For many Greenlanders, more is at stake than geopolitical strategy: it is about identity, self-determination, and the fear of being crushed between great powers.
Only one thing is certain: the persistence of the United States leaves no doubt that Greenland remains of central importance to it—whether because of alleged security concerns in the Arctic or because of Trump’s personal desire to secure himself a place in the history books. The pressure will not ease. The real question, therefore, is no longer whether the conflict will escalate, but when, and who will ultimately pay the price.
Heiner Kubny, PolarJournal