The Polar Retrospective looks at recent stories from around the world’s polar regions. This week we take a look at ancient permafrost thawing, a change in airline ownership, and the conclusion of Antarctic Treaty meetings without any major declarations.
The Polar Retrospective is a collaborative effort by the editorial team of polarjournal.net. Each writer chooses a topic they found interesting and important in the past week. The initials at the end of each section indicate the author. We hope you enjoy it.
8.7 Million Years Ago, Permafrost Had Vanished from the Northern Hemisphere
A planet 4.5 °C warmer than today was free of permafrost all the way to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. That is the conclusion of a study published on July 1 in Nature Communications and led by an international team of researchers. By analyzing over 60 mineral deposits extracted from caves in the Lena River Delta, in eastern Siberia, the scientists showed that the ground in that region was not frozen 8.7 million years ago. Yet such underground formations, stalactites and stalagmites, can only develop when water infiltrates the soil, which is impossible when permafrost is present.
Using uranium-lead dating, the team determined that these deposits formed during the late Miocene, a period when the average global temperature was 4.5 °C higher than it is today. Their findings indicate that such a rise in temperature would be enough to melt nearly all permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, leaving only some high-altitude or deep subsurface areas intact.
Today’s permafrost contains vast amounts of frozen organic carbon. Its thawing would release billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming. “ This finding is a real warning to us all,” warns Dr. Sebastian Breitenbach, co-author of the study and Head of the Environmental Monitoring and Reconstruction research group at Northumbria University. “ It shows how sensitive our climate system is and where we might be headed if we don’t act to limit our climate emissions now.” M.B.
A Shift in the Nordic Skies is Looming
In a significant move for European aviation, Air France-KLM has announced its intention to acquire a majority stake in Scandinavian Airlines (SAS). This development marks a new chapter for the Scandinavian carrier, with potential implications for its strategic presence in the Arctic.
SAS has a long and storied history in the Arctic. In 1954, the airline pioneered the first scheduled transpolar route, connecting Europe and North America over the North Pole and shortening travel times considerably. More recently, SAS has re-emphasized its commitment to the region with the launch of a new direct route between Copenhagen and Nuuk, Greenland, coinciding with the opening of Nuuk’s new international airport. This route is a key part of SAS’s strategy to build long-term connectivity across the North Atlantic.
With Air France-KLM taking a majority share, questions arise about the future of SAS’s Arctic focus. While the Franco-Dutch airline group will undoubtedly integrate SAS into its global network, with Copenhagen poised to become a key hub, SAS CEO Anko van der Werff has stated that the airline will “remain proudly Scandinavian at heart, look and feel.” This suggests that the popular and strategically important northern routes are likely to be maintained and potentially even expanded upon.
The deal, which is subject to regulatory approval and expected to be finalized in the second half of 2026, will see Air France-KLM increase its stake from 19.9% to 60.5%. The Danish state will retain a 26.4% share. For travelers and communities in the Arctic, the hope is that this new ownership structure will bring stability and enhanced connectivity, ensuring that the vital air links to the rest of the world remain strong. M.W.
Antarctic Treaty meeting finished last week
The 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), held in Milan from June 23 to July 3, concluded “without agreeing anything substantive,” summarized New Zealand expert on Antarctic affairs Alan Hemmings on LinkedIn, having just returned from the discussions. No significant progress appears to have been made on crucial issues, such as the ratification of environmental liability (Annex VI of the Madrid Protocol) or the regulation of tourism.
Although highly pathogenic avian influenza and microplastic pollution were indeed addressed, no binding measures are included in the initial communications – and there is little hope for a surprise announcement when the final reports are released.
Hemmings also pointed to the relative withdrawal of the United States, which submitted only one report this year, compared to around thirty in the past. By comparison, China was involved in seven documents, and Russia in eleven. Lastly, the bids by Canada and Belarus to obtain Consultative Party status have once again failed.
One promising development lies in the transfer of the Treaty Secretariat to Chile, through the election of Chilean ambassador Francisco Berguño as Executive Secretary. “This process enables us to have a more precise and ambitious instrument in its content, adapted to our capabilities and the commitments we have made, both nationally and within the Antarctic Treaty System,” said Chile’s Foreign Minister. Despite declarations of cooperation, the sense of inertia persists. Next meeting: Hiroshima, in 2026. C.L.