Mila Zinkova, an independent atmospheric scientist, has just published a study in the journal Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research that pays tribute to the Terra Nova expedition. She suggests that the captain and his crew, returning from the South Pole, may well have been caught in a nine-day snowstorm, during which they perished – a story that has long been questioned, but is now plausible from a meteorological point of view.
When the wind lifts the snow, it whitens the sky and the horizon. The sun is no longer a star, but a diffuse light that acts like a white screen. With visibility close to zero, how would you find refuge on the Ross Sea ice shelf in 1912?
The chances were slim, and Robert Falcon Scott and his companions set up camp in March, on their way back from the South Pole, after having been robbed of the limelight by Amundsen. Exhausted, they waited out an atmospheric disturbance, just 18 kilometers from a food depot called One Ton, one of many along the way.
After 1,500 kilometers and less than 200 kilometers from the base camp at Cape Evans, they died at the “last camp”, their food supplies dried up in the freezing cold. The circumstances in which Robert Falcon Scott and his companions lost their lives have been the subject of debate and controversy since 1922. Some defend a polar hero caught in the clutches of an unforgiving environment, while others see him as a proud man who would have done anything to keep up appearances.
In Scott’s diary, just before his end, the description of a 9-day long blizzard – from March 21 to 29 – has often been questioned by historians, journalists and scientists. However, a study published in the journal Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research on July 18 shows that “the final blizzard probably unfolded as Scott described it.”
In 2002, renowned author and chemist Dr. Susan Solomon lent some credence to Scott’s story by attesting, through atmospheric studies, that his shattering failure was indeed due to abysmal climatic circumstances. She attests to the accuracy of the temperatures recorded by the expedition between the South Pole and the last camp.
The cold to which the convoy was exposed was exceptionally severe that year. Scott and Amundsen’s ships took three days to reach the coast through the ice, whereas Shackleton had taken only two the previous year.
In her book The Coldest March, however, Dr. Susan Solomon did not give Scott full credit for questioning the existence of a final 9-day blizzard. “She retains a significant amount of doubt, which is certainly unjustified,” Mila Zinkova, a San Francisco-based independent researcher specializing in the study of atmosphere and meteorology, and author of the new study, tells polarjournal.net.
The suicide hypothesis
Although Dr. Susan Solomon’s research has played a part in rehabilitating the heroism of these explorers, she told the Los Angeles Times in 2001 that “their deaths may have been the result of choice rather than chance”.
For Dr. Susan Solomon, the existence of such a prolonged strong wind is more myth than reality, and Scott’s acolytes would have chosen to stay with their leader, who had difficulty using his legs, rather than reach the next supply point. So she doesn’t rule out suicide.
“She came to this conclusion partly because of a limited understanding of the meteorological dynamics of the Ross Barrier,” Mila Zinkova tells us. “Specifically because she believed that the inland position made the last camp insensitive to cyclonic activity, and that all high winds in the region came solely from katabatic winds.”
The study published this month, however, proves that there is no reason to believe that Scott had fabricated in his diary to save his honor. Mila Zinkova checked the weather records for the summer of 1911-1912. She compared them with satellite observations of the area at recent times when comparable meteorological phenomena had occurred.
At the time, several expeditions and stations were active. These included data from the sailing ships Terra Nova and Aurora, as well as stations on Macquarie Island, Australian and New Zealand data, and wind records from Cape Evans, the expedition’s starting point on the coast near today’s McMurdo station.
According to Cape Evans records, in March 1912, there were two consecutive series of blizzards – long, consecutive and intense. Mila Zinkova believes this was the slow passage of two cyclones across the vast Ross Sea region and its ice shelf.
On March 19, at Cape Evans, an initial gale set in and lasted 54 hours. On March 23, the wind dropped and changed direction, before picking up again on March 24 for 3 days and 10 hours. The cyclonic episode of March 1912 went back and forth. Mila Zinkova shows that the same cyclones that hit Cape Evans also affected the last camp.
To understand what probably happened at the last camp during the lull or halt in the snowstorm felt at Cape Evans, the author used images of a cyclone from 2017, accompanied by meteorological data.
Mila Zinkova shows that the retreat of a cyclone allows gravity winds (winds blowing down a mountain) to cross the Ross Ice Shelf. The researcher also demonstrates that katabatic winds descending from the peaks of the Trans-Antarctic chain, culminating at over 4,000 meters, can impact the last camp without affecting Cape Evans.
Scott and his men could therefore have experienced the effects of the cyclone, followed by katabatic winds each time the depression moved away. These observations invalidate the claim in Dr. Solomon’s book that the blizzard could not have lasted beyond March 27.
“Although we can never know what happened during those last days of March 1912, it’s entirely plausible, based on local meteorological dynamics, that Scott’s account of a severe blizzard is accurate,” explains Mila Zinkova.
In the light of this study, Scott’s image could be getting some color back. He could therefore have suffered an exceptionally cold year and a March more comparable to an April: winter before its time.
A few months after Scott’s death, Terra Nova meteorologist George Clarke Simpson, based in Cape Evans, recorded a blizzard lasting 6 days and 14 hours. This confirms Mila Zinkova’s study, supporting the possibility of a prolonged blizzard at that time.
A delicate position
When Mila Zinkova tried to contact Dr. Susan Solomon, she didn’t get back to her in view of the results. “Dr. Susan Solomon should have known that katabatic and other ice barrier winds are generated by cyclonic systems in the Ross region, which can influence weather conditions at the last camp,” she adds.
Dr. Susan Solomon is a Distinguished Research Fellow at MIT and a member of several academies of science and learned societies. A glacier in Antarctica bears her name. The Mila Zinkova study may well have put her in an awkward position. Our request remains unanswered for the time being.
Mila Zinkova encountered obstacles in publishing the study. “This was largely due to Dr. Susan Solomon’s considerable stature within the scientific communitye, explains Mila Zinkova.
Its original co-author, Dr. Mark Seefeldt, a recognized researcher in high wind phenomena on the Ross Barrier, initially collaborated on the study. “He knows Antarctic meteorology better than any of the reviewers appointed by the journal,” she explains.
However, following what Mila Zinkova described as excessively harsh and unfair criticism from Weather magazine, Dr Mark Seefeldt officially withdrew from the project. He has nevertheless continued to offer his informal support, remaining available to answer questions and share his expertise.
“Dr. Susan Solomon is a renowned and respected scientist, but she made a mistake with lasting consequences, which tarnished the reputation of Captain Scott and his companions,” Mila Zinkova tells us. “I still hope that Yale University Press, the publisher of The Coldest March, will revise the book so that it continues to serve as the definitive reference in the history of polar exploration.”
This new study could seal the controversy. Though often scorned, Scott and his men could, in one last icy squall, find peace.