The melting of the polar ice sheets is among the most frequently discussed consequences of climate change. Far less attention, however, is paid to what comes afterward: What happens once an ice sheet has gone through a period of intense thinning? Does it stabilize, or does it begin to grow again? This is precisely the question researchers from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research are investigating, using the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a case study.
To better place today’s developments in context and to forecast future changes more reliably, scientists are looking back into Earth’s history. Their focus is on the Lützow-Holm Bay region in East Antarctica. There, researchers are examining whether a phase of rapid thinning around 9,000 to 6,000 years ago was followed by stabilization or even renewed thickening of the ice sheet.
These findings are of central importance. They help to correctly interpret current measurement data and to assess how the East Antarctic Ice Sheet might respond to continued warming in the future. At the same time, they contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of ice dynamics across Antarctica as a whole, an essential foundation for improved climate models and political decision-making in addressing climate change.
The results of the study were published on November 17, 2025, in the scientific journal Scientific Reports. “Our results show that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in this region exhibited complex dynamics during the middle Holocene,” explains study author Jun’ichi Okuno. Models that take into account a moderate re-thickening of the ice sheet by about 65 to 100 meters following rapid thinning fit the measurement data significantly better than previous global deglaciation models.
For their analysis, the researchers combined several methods in an integrated approach. Using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), they recorded present-day ground movements influenced by past ice loads. In addition, they employed models of glacial isostatic adjustment, simulations that describe how the Earth’s crust responds to changes in ice and water masses. These models were based on the known history of ice loading and took particular account of the rapid thinning in the Skarvsnes area of Lützow-Holm Bay, as well as results from earlier studies.
The message of the research is clear: the history of ice is not a linear process. Yet it is precisely this complexity that makes it so valuable for understanding the present, and for preparing for a future in which the stability of the great ice sheets will play a decisive role in global sea level.
Heiner Kubny, PolarJournal