Denmark, Greenland and Iceland Navigate a New Geopolitical Reality

by Dr. Michael Wenger
04/30/2025
The new geopolitical reality is affecting security policy in the Arctic, and Denmark, Greenland, and Iceland are adapting by discussing new approaches.

The long-held view of the Arctic as a region of low tension and scientific cooperation is rapidly eroding, primarily driven by a lot of uncertainties coming from Russia and a significant shift in United States policy under the current administration. Renewed and assertive US strategic focus on acquiring Greenland, coupled with rhetoric questioning the established framework of transatlantic security and NATO commitments, is forging a stark new geopolitical reality in the High North.

In October 2024, the US Coast Guard promoted a stronger translantic cooperation for more stability in the Arctic. Six months later, everything has changed leading Copenhagen, Nuuk and Reykjavik to reassess their situation and discussing new approaches. Photo: Michael Wenger

This evolving American stance, playing out against the backdrop of climate change opening strategic waterways and access to resources, compels key Arctic actors, particularly Denmark, Greenland and Iceland, to navigate unprecedented challenges and urgently reassess their security postures and international alignments.

Denmark and Greenland: Stronger Partnership due to Unwanted Advances, maybe Sovereignity

Greenland finds itself geographically and politically central to these shifts. Renewed declarations of interest from the US administration regarding the acquisition of Greenland, echoing similar statements from previous years, have been firmly rejected by both Nuuk and Copenhagen. Greenland’s Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, responding to US rhetoric during his visit to Denmark in late April 2025, stressed the need for respect, stating that recent US remarks had been “‘disrespectful'” and emphasized that Greenland is willing to cooperate with “all countries that treat us well, respect us, and wish to build partnerships based on mutual respect.” While aspiring to eventual full sovereignty, Nielsen also reaffirmed the importance of the partnership with Denmark in the current climate.

While Denmark constitutionally retains responsibility for Greenland’s foreign and defence policy, the heightened focus on the Arctic, including pointed US remarks about Denmark’s defence investment in the region, is prompting closer dialogue. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen acknowledged the challenge, noting the need to “discuss the foreign and security policy situation, geopolitics, and how we approach this very, very difficult task together.” Furthermore, during a visit to Nuuk in early April 2025, Frederiksen indicated an openness to “more specific negotiations” which could potentially encompass areas ranging from “self-governance legislation” to enhanced investments or security cooperation, signalling a possible evolution in the framework governing the relationship. Despite these complexities, the US interest, rooted in Greenland’s strategic location vital for monitoring the North Atlantic (including the Pituffik Space Base) and its potential mineral wealth, inadvertently seems to be reinforcing the Greenland-Denmark relationship, built on the principle of “nothing about Greenland without Greenland.”

Iceland Reassessing Defence in the High North

Iceland, a founding NATO member unique for having no standing army, is also facing a period of introspection regarding its security. Traditionally reliant on its NATO membership and a bilateral defence agreement with the United States, which historically included the Keflavik Air Base vital during the Cold War and again significant for monitoring regional activity, Icelanders are now debating a potential shift.

“There has never been public support for a military in Iceland, and I don’t think there will be in the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean we can’t have active defense or active alliances.”
Kristrún Frostadóttir, Prime Minister of Iceland

Discussions are underway about strengthening national defence capabilities and even reopening talks on EU membership, suspended in 2013. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s government plans a review of the national defense strategy and aims for a referendum on EU talks by 2027. While acknowledging the historical lack of public appetite for a domestic military, Frostadóttir noted, “There has never been public support for a military in Iceland, and I don’t think there will be in the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean we can’t have active defense or active alliances.” This internal debate reflects the broader regional trend observed by former Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson: “Whether we like it or not, the Arctic is fast becoming a theater of global competition and militarization.” For Iceland, the key pillars remain NATO and the US agreement, involving “increased host nation support to NATO and allies operating in the North Atlantic.”

Danish frigate HDMS Triton (left) often visits Reykjavik while patroling Greenlandic waters and the area between Greenland and Iceland. The latter has no naval forces but patrols its waters with Icelandic Coast Guard vessels like the “Thor” (right).

Navigating Choppy Waters

The strategic waters between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK (the GIUK Gap) remain a critical chokepoint for monitoring maritime activity transiting from the Arctic. As great power competition intensifies and the physical environment changes, Denmark, Greenland and Iceland are navigating complex challenges. They must balance national aspirations and unique historical contexts with the pressures of regional militarization and the strategic designs of larger powers. The path forward demands careful diplomacy, strengthened regional partnerships, and a clear-eyed assessment of a rapidly evolving Arctic security landscape.