Tensions between the United States, Russia, and China have increasingly spread to the Arctic. This is the conclusion of the latest risk assessment by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. As a result, the region is losing its former role as a comparatively stable area and is becoming an integral part of global power competition.
According to the report, the strategic importance of the Arctic is growing as the conflict between Russia and the West intensifies. The region is particularly significant from a military perspective, since in the event of a great-power conflict, a large proportion of ballistic missiles would fly over the Arctic.
Russia continues to be regarded as the strongest military power in the region. Moscow has expanded its presence there for years and has stationed a large share of its nuclear submarines at Arctic bases. Despite the war in Ukraine, Russia’s capabilities are said to remain largely intact. A key role is played by the so-called GIUK Gap between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the United Kingdom, which Russia systematically monitors.
The United States is also stepping up its military activities. For Washington, the Arctic is a central early-warning zone, among other things through radar installations at the Pituffik Space Base. However, for the first time the report also mentions the United States critically, noting that it is increasingly using its economic and technological power as leverage against partners.
China currently has no military presence in the Arctic but is pursuing long-term plans. Within the next few years, Beijing aims to be capable of operating warships and submarines in the region and, in the long term, to achieve a nuclear deterrence capability beneath the ice.
The intelligence service also criticizes Russia’s handling of environmental and Indigenous issues. According to the report, ecological risks and the rights of Indigenous peoples are largely neglected in the pursuit of strategic interests.
Heiner Kubny, PolarJournal