Between Ice and the Future: Polar Bears in Svalbard

by Rosamaria Kubny

02/11/2026

Where has the ice gone?
A solitary polar bear stands on a melting ice floe near Svalbard – a silent sign of change in the Arctic. (Photo: Heiner Kubny)

Climate change is hitting the Arctic particularly hard. Around the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, the annually ice-free period in the Barents Sea has lengthened dramatically since the 1980s. For a long time, this was considered a bad omen for the polar bears living there. But a new long-term study comes as a surprise: the condition of the animals is good – and has even improved since the turn of the millennium.

The Barents Sea region is among the fastest-warming areas on Earth. Between 2001 and 2020, temperatures in some places rose by up to 2.7 degrees Celsius per decade. Sea ice, the polar bears’ vital hunting ground, has declined particularly sharply here. In other polar regions, this has already led to poorer health and shrinking populations. In Svalbard, however, this scenario does not yet appear to be confirmed.

The map shows the area where bears were captured, with black dots representing males and red dots females. The yellow circle marks the area of the “local” ecotype, the pink circle that of the “pelagic” ecotype. The area in between is used by both ecotypes in spring. Pink arrows show the migrations of pelagic bears between Svalbard and the pack ice or Franz Josef Land. (Graphic: Norwegian Polar Institute)

A study published in the journal Scientific Reports by a research team led by biologist Jon Aars from the Norwegian Polar Institute examined the development of the polar bear population in the Barents Sea over nearly three decades. Between 1992 and 2019, scientists anesthetized animals more than 1,200 times to collect health data. In total, 770 adult polar bears were recorded. Among other things, the researchers measured the reproductive status of females and the so-called Body Condition Index (BCI), which provides information about fat reserves and thus physical condition.

The result: although the bears’ BCI declined until around the year 2000, it subsequently increased again – precisely during a period when sea ice was retreating particularly rapidly. Overall, the ice-free period lengthened by more than three months per year over the course of the study. Nevertheless, the polar bears remained healthy; the population, estimated at around 2,650 animals, is considered stable and may even have increased slightly.

**Ice and snow still cover the landscape. A polar bear mother rests closely nestled together with her cubs. (Photo: Heiner Kubny)**

The researchers see several possible reasons for this development. The bears appear to be increasingly turning to alternative food sources on land. Reindeer and walruses are more readily available today than in the past, as they have been hunted less intensively since the turn of the millennium. In addition, polar bears are now spending more time on ice-free coasts, where they raid bird nests, for example. Another hypothesis is that ringed seals – the polar bears’ main prey – are becoming more concentrated on the shrinking ice surfaces, making them easier to catch.

Despite the currently positive findings, the authors urge caution. If climate warming continues and sea ice declines even further, even the adaptable Svalbard population could reach its limits. If hunting periods become shorter and distances to the remaining ice increase, the animals’ energy expenditure is likely to rise. In the long term, even the polar bears of Svalbard, which have so far proven resilient, may no longer be able to withstand the consequences of climate change.

Rosamaria Kubny, PolarJournal