The destruction of permafrost and increasing extreme weather events could cost the Russian economy billions of dollars. Most studies point to growing damage in Russia’s northern regions as a result of climate change. According to a study by the Bank of Russia, up to 60 percent of buildings and structures in northern Russia are already affected by permafrost degradation. In a high-emissions scenario, losses to the housing stock alone could reach USD 20.7 billion by mid-century, while total infrastructure damage could exceed USD 100 billion.
The Ministry of Natural Resources estimates economic losses from permafrost thaw by 2050 at USD 62.7 billion. Road maintenance will also require significant spending: between USD 5.3 and 10.8 billion annually in the Arctic regions of Chukotka, Yakutia, and Magadan are at risk.
Agriculture presents a particular challenge: southern regions are expected to experience declining grain yields, leading to annual losses of more than USD 1.2 billion. At the same time, central and northern regions may see opportunities to expand winter grain production.
Climate hazards also affect digital infrastructure: in the Moscow region, up to 30% of data centers will be located in zones at risk of flooding, storms, and fires by 2050. Scientists estimate that direct flood-related damages already amount to about 0.1–0.13% of GDP per year.
Experts point out that companies are already implementing adaptation measures: farmers are switching to drought-resistant varieties and irrigation, and the mining sector is introducing monitoring systems for facilities built on permafrost soils. These measures aim to reduce climate and operational risks, but the scale of the challenges requires a systematic adaptation policy.
Heiner Kubny, PolarJournal